Software engineering technology watch

Predicting the evolution of software engineering technology is, at best, a dubious proposition; most typically, it is a frustrating exercise in disappointment and anxiety. It is not difficult to see why: the evolution of software technology is fast paced, and is determined by a dizzying array of factors, many of them outside the arena of software engineering, and most of them cannot be identified, let alone predicted, with any significant advance notice. In this paper, we briefly discuss our first ventures in this domain, and some (very) preliminary conclusions and resolutions.